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Thursday, March 08, 2007

My Green Crystal Ball: $30 billion in ‘07

My 2007 predictions include 1700 new LEED registered projects and 15,000 new green home certifications (not counting Energy Star homes, which may top 175,000 this year - 2006’s totals). Total construction value is about $30 billion. Add in the Energy Star homes and you’re above $50 billion. Total of all products in green buildings and green homes is then between $10 and $20 billion. Check out the full text of my predictions.

Posted by Jerry on 03/08/2007 at 10:01 AM

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Sunday, January 07, 2007

I’m releasing my 2007 green building predictions! What are yours?

Here are my predictions:

1. The U.S. Green Building Council’s (USGBC) new “LEED for Homes” standard will debut with more than 5,000 homes registered in the program within the first six months, representing the commitment of 50 builders at an average of 100 homes.
2. Green homebuilding will soar, even before LEED for Homes is released, owning to the pent-up demand by buyers looking to save energy and builders looking for an edge in the marketplace among the so-called “Eco-Elite” buyers. There is strong evidence of builders’ interest in energy-efficient home design, as a way to respond to the public’s concern for saving money and doing something for the planet. Also, the availability of a Federal $2000 per home tax credit for energy-efficient homebuilding through the end of 2009 should work as a strong incentive for many.
3. Cumulative LEED certifications under all systems will top 1,000 for the first time. This will be a long way from 350 certifications at year-end 2005 and about 670 certifications as of December 2006. The advent of USGBC’s “portfolio” program for “volume-build” organizations such as banks, national retailers and similar organizations should swell the numbers of LEED-certified buildings quickly.
4. Cumulative LEED project registrations under all systems (excluding single-family homes) will approach 10,000. This will put us well on track to achieve USGBC CEO Rick Fedrizzi’s late-2006 prediction of 100,000 LEED-registered commercial building projects by the end of 2010.
5. More than 50 additional cities will adopt some form of green building ordinance or mandate, as more cities start to implement their commitment to the “U.S. Mayors’ Climate Protection Agreement” and as the political agenda in Washington DC changes, to put more emphasis energy efficiency and climate change issues.
6. More than 10 additional states will adopt incentive programs or mandates for their own buildings. There are now more than 15 states now with specific green building programs. Because of the Democratic takeover of several governorships and state legislatures, these actions will likely occur in the first half of 2007. Look for additional strong actions in California, Oregon and other states where “pro-green building” governors were returned to office.
7. More than 30 additional LEED Platinum projects will be certified, effectively tripling the number of such landmark buildings. People are beginning to figure out that LEED Platinum is achievable, with a little luck and good planning, as well as some budget tolerance for renewable energy systems.
8. Attendance at Greenbuild 2007 in Los Angeles this fall will top 20,000 for the first time. (As a long-time conference participant, even I was surprised that more than 13,000 paid registrants turned out for Greenbuild 2006 in Denver.) The far greater population in Southern California and the growth of the green building industry in general will play a role in growing the total attendance for Los Angeles this fall more than 50%.
9. LEED will register more than 100 non-US and non-Canadian projects for certification for the first time. We see a general interest in LEED from office developers in China, India and other countries, wanting to appeal to multinational tenants, as well as government programs that want to green their projects in the absence of clear national standards.
10. The number of LEED Accredited Professionals (LEED APs) will grow by 15% or more, to a total exceeding 40,000 by the end of 2007. As a LEED national faculty trainer, I am amazed at how we continue to sell out each workshop, with most attendees wanting to take the LEED AP exam. Considering that there are more than 100,000 real estate agents in the U.S., I see no end anytime soon to the growth in the number of LEED APs.

Posted by Jerry Yudelson on 01/07/2007 at 09:02 AM

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Monday, December 04, 2006

Green Building and Sustainability Consulting

Sometimes a green building and sustainability consultant gets to eat the food he recommends to others. As a consultant focused on marketing green buildings and green building services, it’s been people asking me, “Who are your target clients?” Anyone who’s started a new business knows that the early-stage clients often define the enterprise for a considerable time, yet are indispensable. The marketplace tells each business what it wants most, in terms of what it’s willing to pay for. In the case of Yudelson Associates, it’s market intelligence, good business advice and a “hands on” approach to delivering it. Our clients to date include venture capital firms; very large and very small developers; architects and engineers wanting advice on green building marketing; projects looking for design assistance; a large building products manufacturer; organizations seeking an insightful speech or inspiring workshop; a university or a company trying to implement a sustainability program; and the list goes on. In each case, we’re trying to meet our corporate vision: “growing the business of green building,” allowing each client to contribute to that idea. It’s like jazz in a way, a central theme, with a lot of riffs. What are your experiences of growing a business?

Posted by Jerry Yudelson on 12/04/2006 at 04:53 AM

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Thursday, November 02, 2006

Green Real Estate Rocks!

I chaired a panel on “The Emerging Business Case for Green Development” at the NAIOP national real estate conference in San Francisco on November 1st. Two major developers, Vulcan in Seattle, and Corporate Office Properties Trust (COPT) in Columbia, Maryland, presented their approach to green development. A private company, Vulcan Real Estate is essentially doing urban infill in the South Lake Union district of Seattle, while Corporate Office Properties Trust, a public company, is doing suburban office buildings in Maryland, Virginia, Colorado Springs and San Antonio. Both are doing LEED Silver on their projects, and both report capital cost increases of 0.5%. This is exciting news, as it indicates that costs for developing green buildings are going down, as developers get more individual experience with green projects.

Posted by Jerry Yudelson on 11/02/2006 at 04:33 PM

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